A proposal for reducing mass shootings in the USA.

Background, scope, and context:

We have a violence problem in the USA, and one of the ways that shows up is mass shootings. For purposes of this proposal, I'm referring to incidents where 8 or more people are shot and many of those are killed, and it's not related to gang/drug activity, or family/domestic violence. This is not an attempt to address those other incidents, even though those kill far more people every year. This is to address the large mass shootings such as Columbine HS, Aurora Theater, MSD HS in Parkland, the Newtown/Sandy Hook ES shooting, the Las Vegas concert shooting, etc.

Why am I addressing only these? Because they have a much larger psychological impact on the country, and because they can be addressed much more easily than those other incidents. These are acts of domestic terrorism, specifically stochastic terrorism. These have different causes and different solutions than the gang/drug or family/domestic dispute violence. Addressing those other issues is a much more complex problem involving many aspects of our society, laws, culture, and safety net. I may attempt to address some of those issues in another post, but I'm not going to even attempt them here.

Below is my proposal for limiting access to guns based on their capacity for "mass lethality". No, this won’t stop all such incidents, but it will make them much less likely and will tend to lower the count of injuries and deaths in each incident.

While I'm going to refer to AR-15 type guns because of their familiarity, nothing in the proposal is based specifically on any specific gun, style, or cosmetic features. This is based solely upon capacities, functionality, and maximum round energy. Indeed, this proposal doesn't even need to distinguish between handguns, shotguns, rifles, nor type of action (semi-automatic, bolt-action, etc), nor is it limited to guns using gunpowder, any means of propelling a "bullet"/"projectile" at sufficient energy will qualify.

Note that this proposal does not ban the possession, sale, or manufacturer of any type of gun or ammo currently legal in the US, but it does place some restraints on unlicensed possession of certain guns and upon the transfer of such guns, by proposing they be allowed under a new type of license that is less costly than the existing FFL (federal firearms license) required for possession of fully-automatic guns under the NFA (National Firearms Act), and requiring registration of all covered guns.

Premise: Mass Lethality

The lethality of a given gun is based mostly upon it's range, accuracy, and energy of the fired projectile(s). Now, notice that both range and accuracy are related to the energy of the projectile, higher energy cartridge allows for greater range and accuracy. Those aren't the only factors, rifling, length of barrel, length to caliber ratio of the round, mass of the round, etc all have an effect on range and accuracy. But even mass and caliber factors are significantly affected by the energy of the round. Lower energy with a given mass means lower range and accuracy, likewise, larger caliber means more drag and thus lower range and accuracy at a given energy. In short, energy of the round is the most significant element in determining range, accuracy, penetration, and lethality of a projectile.

Now, consider "mass lethality", that is the speed and ease with with a gun can be used to kill or disable a larger number of people in a given time frame. This is obviously related to it's lethality as above, including it's range, penetration, and accuracy, but also to the sustained rate of fire. Obviously, fully-automatic guns will have the highest rate of sustained fire, but those are already tightly controlled and difficult to obtain, for this very reason.

Guns such as the AR-15, which was in fact designed to be a military assault rifle (but due to political influences was rejected until Colt purchased it from Armalite, made minor changes, then marketed it as the M16 to the military, and then removed the full-auto and burst modes to market it as a civilian semi-automatic). As such, it bears nearly the same mass lethality capacity as its selective-fire siblings. This has been repeatedly demonstrated in many mass shootings, some using stock AR-15 type guns, others using modified versions with "bump stocks" or similar devices to increase the rate or fire to approximately the same as it's fully-automatic siblings, as well as in demonstrations showing how quickly it can be manually fired and how quickly magazines can be changed out. Ergo, it is the combination of larger capacity magazines, higher energy rounds, and rapid cycle times that determine the "mass lethality" of a gun. Similar guns from many manufacturers are now easily available to almost any US citican.

Guns with such "mass lethality" are inherently "weapons of war" and serve no need in hunting or self-defense (see notes at the bottom). Therefore, it is prudent to significantly restrict the possession of such weapons by civilians except when they are engaged in military training maneuvers or deployed in military battle zones.

Terminology

Now, for some concrete definitions.

1. Gun shall mean any device capable of firing one or more projectiles from a "barrel", propelled by "gun powder", "expanding gasses", electricity, or any other "explosive propellant", and said projectile is not self-propelled (e.g. rocket, missile, etc)
2. Magazine shall mean any internal or external means of storing more than one round of ammunition such that it can be moved into a firing position and fired by the gun. This specifically excludes ammo storage containers unless said there is a means other than a specific manual action by the person operating the gun to load additional rounds from that container into a firing position (e.g. belt-fed, chain-fed, or clip-fed rounds fed into the gun). This is the traditional meaning of magazine, just clarifying points so there is no possibility of a "work-around". If it can feed additional rounds into a firing position, it shall meet this definition of magazine. Note that the "cylinder" of a "revolver", or ever a gun with multiple barrels that can each hold one or more rounds will qualify as a "magazine" under this definition.
3. High-capacity magazine shall mean any INTERNAL or EXTERNAL magazine with the capacity to hold more than 10 rounds/cartiridges. 10 rounds is not "high-capacity", 11 is.
4. High-energy round shall mean any projectile intended to be fired from a gun, that has a maximum energy capacity of the cartridge in excess of 800joules. For reference, this allows virtually all common "handgun" rounds except those larger than .45 caliber, and some "Magnum" rounds. Nearly all hunting guns (rifles and shotguns), except those using the .22LR or .22Magnum, exceed that energy, however, those guns rarely have magazines exceeding a 10 round capacity. [note: the figures I based this on are likely “muzzle energy”, not cartridge energy. Either measure could be used, but the energy limit might be higher when measuring maximum cartridge energy. Requires a bit more research to determine the appropriate measure/limit]. Note this refers to the maximum energy cartridge the gun is capable of firing, not the energy of any specific ammo the person possesses.
5. If a gun is capable of firing a high-energy round AND the person possessing the gun is concurrently in possession of a compatible "high-capacity magazine", functional or not, whether or not the magazine is installed in the gun, then it shall be deemed a "weapon of mass lethality" and shall be restricted under this law.
6. Possession shall mean having access to, or control of, such a gun. A gun secured in such a way that you don't have access to fire it is not considered “in your possession” under this proposal, unless you are carrying it.

The proposal:

1. any gun capable of firing a "high-energy" round, and containing an internal "high capacity" magazine, or capable of utilizing an external magazine, MUST be resistered with the state in which the owner resides. This applies regardless of whether the owner possesses any "high-capacity" magazines. If the owner does not possess any compatible high capabity magacines, then only registration is required, no license is needed. However, you MUST obtain a license before you can possess a compatible high-capacity magazine. This also means any transfer (sale, gift, etc) of such a gun to a new owner will require re-registering the gun. If the owner moves to a new state, it must be registered with the new state within 30 days of move.
2. Congress shall create a new type of firearms license allowing possession of these "weapons of mass lethality", criteria and costs for which are TBD, and shall be less costly and shall not require all of the qualifications needed for the existing FFL. It shall not allow a person to possessess any of the weapons that currently require an FFL. Criteria for receiving the license shall include passing a written test indicating they understand the terms of this law, have passed a background check (depth TBD), have completed an authorized gun safety course, have passed an authorized firearms proficiency test on a range,, and have passed a phycological examination.
3. Any gun meeting the criteria above, shall be illegal to possess unless the person possessing it has a valid license for such type of gun or is under the direct supervision of someone with such license, AND has properly registered ownership of the gun or has written, signed, dated, time-limited [to less than 14 days] permission from the properly registered owner to possess it at that time. Written permission from the owner is not required if the person is under the direct supervision the properly licensed and registered owner of the gun. Possession without specified permission from the registered owner shall be a US federal misdemeanor (class TBD) or a felony if the owner says the posessor was not authorized to possess it. Possession without a valid license shall be a class D/E felony, for a first offense. Subsequent offenses should remove all rights to possess any gun.

Notice that all of this is strictly based on measurable capabilities and capacities of the weapon, no judgement calls, nothing cosmetic, and penalties apply based on unlicensed or unregistered possession, not sale, transfer, or manufacture, so there is no "work-around" for it. It either meets the criteria and requires licensing and/or registration, or it doesn’t meet the criteria, and therefore doesn't require any additional licensing or registration, much like the existing NFA laws.

This has virtually no impact on any existing handgun, rifle, or shotgun, except for a few handguns that use high-powered (typically “magnum”) rounds AND hold more than 10 rounds, and the AR-15/AK47 like guns. It doesn't ban any gun, but it does make unlicensed or unregistered possession of specific categories of guns illegal.

In order to avoid being ex-post facto or violating the takings clause, the FedGov shall offer to purchase at market value (established shortly before the legislation is passed, or as soon as possible afterward) any gun or magazine that would become illegal to possess without a license or registration under this law, for a period of 1 year prior to the effective date of this law. Thus, current owners will have numerous options to become compliant before the effective date. Owners will be able to use any one or more of the following options to become compliant with the law:

• Get a license for such type of gun, and register any covered guns. Licenses will include thorough background checks, and are not guaranteed to be issued to any individual who applies. Those who already own a covered gun and magazine who apply during the year prior to the effective date of the law shall have their application fee waived, as will registration fees for currently owned covered guns be waived for those who receive a license.
• Sell covered guns or magazines to another person who is licensed to possess them. This includes anyone possessing the new license type or any FFL.
• Sell covered guns or magazines to the Federal Government at the pre-established prices.
• Exchange high capacity magazines, for a number of 5-10 round magazines to closely match the total capacity of each operational "high-capacity" magazine exchanged, supplied at government expense,or for one 5-10 round magazine if the high capacity magazine is non-functional.
• Destroy any covered guns or magazines, and sign an affidavit attesting to their destruction. Affidavit must include make, model, and serial number of each destroyed gun. Falsifying this affidavit (as evidenced by the later finding of any gun listed on the affidavit shall incur the same indictment and penalty as possession would have, plus an additional felony for the falsification.

It shall be illegal to give, sell, or transfer a "high-capcity" magazine to an unlicensed person. It shall be illegal for an unlicensed person to buy, receive, or build-manufacture a high-capacity magazine. The lone exception to this is that an unlicensed person may temporarily possess such high-capacity magazine while under the direct supervision of a properly licensed person.

Note that it is sufficient to simply sell/destroy/exchange all magazines for covered guns that qualify as a "high capacity" magazine to become compliant. However, later acquisition or manufacture of such a magazine would put an unlicensed/unregistered owner in violation of this law.

Notes:

Yes, the second amendment is about stopping a tyrannical government. Below are the reasons that’s not an excuse against limiting civilian assess to guns like the AR-15:

1. The states have the National Guard, official state militias to protect from the federak government. This is was not the case when the country was founded and the 2nd Amendment was written.
2. There are 80M-100M gun owners in the USA, they vastly outnumber the total number (~2M) of military and police. In the event of any attempt to attack the citizens, it’s likely at least half the police/military would refuse to follow an order to attack and would take whatever arms they could and fight against those who would follow the order. The govt would be greatly outnubered.
3. Having an AR type gun isn’t going to make any difference in such an event, not against professional military armed with tanks, RPGs, LAWS rockets, artillery, fighter jets, bombers, and nuclear weapons. It will be numbers and tactics that win against tyranny, not AR-15 like guns.
4. Likewise, for home/self-defense, an AR-15 like gun isn't going to be any more useful with or without a high-capacity magazine. Handguns and shotguns are the most useful for home/self-defense. If you need to fire more than 10 rounds in self-defense, you've already lost because you were greatly outnumbered, or were not adequately proficient with your gun, and an AR-15 type gun would not likely alter the outcome.
5. Does registration allow tyrants to confiscate guns? No, for two reasons. First, this doesnt require registering all guns, only those meeting the criteria above. Your other guns aren't affected. Second, the number of guns and gun owners already in the US makes that completely unrealistic.
6. Why restrict magazine size? Yes, magazines can be changed very quickly, however, it does generally take 2-3 seconds and changes the focus of a shooter while doing so. Therefore, every time a shooter has to stop and change magazines gives defenders a chance to escape or counter-attack (whether that involves shooting back or physically assaulting the shooter).

Acknowledgements:

Inspiration for this proposal came from my reading of a proposal by a friend of mine. While my proposal is definitely different from his, it was the thing that sparked the idea in my head, so acknowledgement is due for his contribution.People B4 Guns proposal

Updates:

2022-05-31: Given that I've been advocating this proposal for several years (including about 2 years before I posted it here on my blog) as an alternative to an outright ban, but almost no gun owners have tried to get it enacted, I've concluded that too many just don't want to do anything. As such, I'm ok with turning this proposal into an outright ban on the types of weapons it would cover, either way works for me. If you're not willing to be part of the solution, then you are part of the problem and should be treated as such. If you don't like being put in that category, then do something. Take action to address the problem now. Doing nothing isn't working. "Thoughts and prayers" don't work, unless you take action. The "good guy with a gun" theory is thoroughly debunked, as 6x as many shooters are stopped by UNARMED civilians than are stopped by "good guys with guns".

2024-09-04: Minor tweaks and clarifications, corrected a few typos/spelling errors. Changed "high-capacity" magazine from more than 9 rounds to more than 10 rounds, thus reducing the number of covered magazines and simplifying the exchange of "high-capacity" magazines for lower capacity magazines.